Guaranteeing the security become more difficult,
since criminality change about your context, cause and expressions depending
the international complex interaction, regional, national and local (Human security unit, 2009), where this create
self-organization and self-adaption about changes of the context to State
actions against them. The security resides inside persons and applies in all
social areas, expressing that people don’t feel threat (Contreras, 2007).
Human security is being violated by the new
kinds of criminality to integrate these technological innovations; around
concept the human security your characteristic and focus are toward a society
more interconnected (Tadjbakhsh, 2005); actually
the world is more mobile, uncertain and unpredictable with exposition for new
vulnerabilities; complex and uncertain are exposed within this environment, not
existing none unique element to analyze that allow interpreting world’s
dynamics inside economic, strategic, politic and cultural of globalization (Ministère de la défense et des anciens combattants,
2008).
This makes that the manner in which the criminals
adopt technological innovations become in a complex system, where it should understand
the whole, its parts and interrelations between them (Morin, 2007) to draw strategies and public policies reducing
impacts in human security, that allow protections about all persons of the
serious threats and foreseeable, that is universal protection against violent
crime or predator crime (Programa de las
Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo-PNUD, 2009) that may occur by
adaption of technological innovation inside criminality.
The Colombian security forces don’t have with a
tool of prevention and anticipation to reduce of risks in security produce by
implementation of technological innovations in the criminal activity, for the
purpose of understand wishes, anxiously and motivations of the criminals, thus
to imagine different futures opportunities and building strategies aimed at to
confront behaviors the these actors (Smida, 2004) meaning that the security
forces analyze and anticipate another phenomenon and to achieve that the actors
don’t avoid obstacles.
State haven’t an effective model of risk
anticipation to protect human security related with public safety, likewise, it
don’t understand variations that systems with complex property experience, that
allows to predict situations and little variations in the initial conditions (González, 2009) of technological innovations
adaptation toward criminality. They are variables that aren’t manageable or
linear, these have been turn in a complex system (Sulakshin, 2011) where it exist interactions, retractions and variations
diffuclt to undertand (Morin, 2007).
Science integration with social context and
techno-science together of a trans-disciplinary that require complex thought (Morin, 2007) to provide a model for National
Police of Colombia that is principal institution responsible citizen security whose
objective is the prevention, that allow to become integrated into reality
anticipative how criminal organizations adopt technological innovations and to
understand patterns of self-organizations and self-regulation (Glasersfeld, 1996) that carry this
organizations to use with criminal aim.
Performance of State purposes with relation
toward the effective guarantee of rights, living together in peace, social
welfare and improvement standard of living of the population (Asamblea Nacional Constituyente, 1991) are
cornerstone of public policy about citizen security, being the prevention its
starting points of purpose model that will allow to understand criminal
behavior, from social and situational prevention, where one crime could lead to
several crimes (Departamento Nacional de
Planeación, 2011).
This research is important both academic and
professional topics, for example from how academic research is important to
understand social phenomenon about technological innovation and forecast your
application within criminal organizations.
Concerning
professional application in necessary by State to understand the behavior
patters criminals regarding on technological innovation adaptation, about
social, economic and of consumption perspectives, therefore these behaviors are
changing toward multi-criminality, where the criminality is organized of
corporative manner and which purpose is obtain profit of the illegal activities
(Ministerio de Defensa Nacional, 2009) namely
crime enterprises.
First, design a model that identify the
importance of monitoring changes and technological trends, showing a
relationship of these over time (Lee, Jeon,
& Park, 2011) across of elements of competitive intelligence more
exactly technological monitoring, to get information about technology,
predicting directions in the changes, assessing and exploring new technology to
adapt and its organizational impacts (Nosella,
Petroni, & Salandra, 2008).
This process will be continuous that involve
recollection of ethic information and legal, to be analyze and to avoid giving
unwanted conclusions (Colakoglu, 2011)
allowing to establish that kind of technological innovation going to use by the
criminals to mitigate the security risks.
It exist different social and personal variables
which aren’t easy led or lineal, becoming one complex system (Sulakshin, 2011), that carry a criminal to adapt
technological innovations in other form of use differents of the orginals,
stuning the industrial structures, this emphasis riquire importance and
opportunity (Robinson, Huang, Guo, & Porter, 2011) to understand
this patters in which the criminals identify or manipulate a new technology for
your purpose. Being this opportunity to achieve a research across scientific
methods, to advance in the study and comprehension of futures crimes and new
risks of citizen security.
To conclude, this research aims to establish the
likelihood that criminals use a technological innovation, according its
evolution level, empirical description and possible applications, across the
expert’s analysis (Robinson, Huang, Guo, &
Porter, 2011) and supported on quantitatives methods that allow to make no
lineals interconected models, features of the networks and patterns that have
been discovered across informatics systems (Capra, 1998) establish a new
formulation of the irreversible changes within the (Prigogine, 1997).
According to he graph above, criminal organizations
begin to adapt a technological innovation in time period 1, subsequently the
Police react and act in the time period 2, for both time periods 3 and 4 the
police reduce the risk forcing criminal organizations don’t to use this
innovation. But from complexity of criminal systems of self-organization and
self-adaptation between either time periods 4 and 5 generate a new use for
technological innovation or to modify the way to use this, the Police is
available in time period 5 to begin the cycle, but with the enhanced of
knowledge and improving the complexity of the system.
This behavior patterns will be to carry for simulation
across of informatics systems that permit to have comprehension of relations
between the organizations, cost, impact, strategies and problems (Stefanovic, Stefanovic, & Radenkovic, 2009)
that should consider the Police to anticipate and to avoid that criminal
organizations adapt for your illegal activities the technological innovations,
using a decision support system about technological decision architecture (Lebraty, 2006) to establish possible futures
that are multiples realities (Mojica, 2011).
Analyzing the patterns adaptation across modeling and simulation
together with adaptation likelihood of technological innovation, the Police may
anticipate from first time period 1, the shape how criminal organizations going
to use this innovation forcing to search new forms of use and new technologies,
how it happen since time period 3 to 6 when they try to adapt and to use a new
technologic, but the Police have already anticipated, avoiding the criminal
sophistication.
The methodology will have a focus and operative
quantitative to know of primary and secondary sources (observation, interview,
data-mining and data analysis) growth trends and technological innovation main
use in the making of illegal activities that affect the human security.
This
information is obtained by means of strategic intelligence technical; identify
your patterns, using complex quantitative methods, achieving the modeling and
simulation of the knowledge, study and work with no lineal complex systems to
treat problems, phenomenon and complex behaviors with computational tools to
find network of solutions (Maldonado & Gómez
Cruz, 2010).
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