Enrique Peñalosa: Why buses represent democracy in action

Mejora continua e innovación en seguridad pública

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Concepto desarrollado por el señor Mayor Mauricio Andrés Carrillo Alvarez, magister en calidad

Revisión por la Dirección - concepto y desarrollo

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Technology, complexity and crime prevention

Guaranteeing the security become more difficult, since criminality change about your context, cause and expressions depending the international complex interaction, regional, national and local (Human security unit, 2009), where this create self-organization and self-adaption about changes of the context to State actions against them. The security resides inside persons and applies in all social areas, expressing that people don’t feel threat (Contreras, 2007).

Human security is being violated by the new kinds of criminality to integrate these technological innovations; around concept the human security your characteristic and focus are toward a society more interconnected (Tadjbakhsh, 2005); actually the world is more mobile, uncertain and unpredictable with exposition for new vulnerabilities; complex and uncertain are exposed within this environment, not existing none unique element to analyze that allow interpreting world’s dynamics inside economic, strategic, politic and cultural of globalization (Ministère de la défense et des anciens combattants, 2008).

This makes that the manner in which the criminals adopt technological innovations become in a complex system, where it should understand the whole, its parts and interrelations between them (Morin, 2007) to draw strategies and public policies reducing impacts in human security, that allow protections about all persons of the serious threats and foreseeable, that is universal protection against violent crime or predator crime (Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo-PNUD, 2009) that may occur by adaption of technological innovation inside criminality.

The Colombian security forces don’t have with a tool of prevention and anticipation to reduce of risks in security produce by implementation of technological innovations in the criminal activity, for the purpose of understand wishes, anxiously and motivations of the criminals, thus to imagine different futures opportunities and building strategies aimed at to confront behaviors the these actors (Smida, 2004) meaning that the security forces analyze and anticipate another phenomenon and to achieve that the actors don’t avoid obstacles.

State haven’t an effective model of risk anticipation to protect human security related with public safety, likewise, it don’t understand variations that systems with complex property experience, that allows to predict situations and little variations in the initial conditions (González, 2009) of technological innovations adaptation toward criminality. They are variables that aren’t manageable or linear, these have been turn in a complex system (Sulakshin, 2011) where it exist interactions, retractions and variations diffuclt to undertand (Morin, 2007).

Science integration with social context and techno-science together of a trans-disciplinary that require complex thought (Morin, 2007) to provide a model for National Police of Colombia that is principal institution responsible citizen security whose objective is the prevention, that allow to become integrated into reality anticipative how criminal organizations adopt technological innovations and to understand patterns of self-organizations and self-regulation (Glasersfeld, 1996) that carry this organizations to use with criminal aim. 

Performance of State purposes with relation toward the effective guarantee of rights, living together in peace, social welfare and improvement standard of living of the population (Asamblea Nacional Constituyente, 1991) are cornerstone of public policy about citizen security, being the prevention its starting points of purpose model that will allow to understand criminal behavior, from social and situational prevention, where one crime could lead to several crimes (Departamento Nacional de Planeación, 2011).

This research is important both academic and professional topics, for example from how academic research is important to understand social phenomenon about technological innovation and forecast your application within criminal organizations.    

Concerning professional application in necessary by State to understand the behavior patters criminals regarding on technological innovation adaptation, about social, economic and of consumption perspectives, therefore these behaviors are changing toward multi-criminality, where the criminality is organized of corporative manner and which purpose is obtain profit of the illegal activities (Ministerio de Defensa Nacional, 2009) namely crime enterprises.

First, design a model that identify the importance of monitoring changes and technological trends, showing a relationship of these over time (Lee, Jeon, & Park, 2011) across of elements of competitive intelligence more exactly technological monitoring, to get information about technology, predicting directions in the changes, assessing and exploring new technology to adapt and its organizational impacts (Nosella, Petroni, & Salandra, 2008).

This process will be continuous that involve recollection of ethic information and legal, to be analyze and to avoid giving unwanted conclusions (Colakoglu, 2011) allowing to establish that kind of technological innovation going to use by the criminals to mitigate the security risks.  

It exist different social and personal variables which aren’t easy led or lineal, becoming one complex system (Sulakshin, 2011), that carry a criminal to adapt technological innovations in other form of use differents of the orginals, stuning the industrial structures, this emphasis riquire importance and opportunity (Robinson, Huang, Guo, & Porter, 2011) to understand this patters in which the criminals identify or manipulate a new technology for your purpose. Being this opportunity to achieve a research across scientific methods, to advance in the study and comprehension of futures crimes and new risks of citizen security.  

To conclude, this research aims to establish the likelihood that criminals use a technological innovation, according its evolution level, empirical description and possible applications, across the expert’s analysis (Robinson, Huang, Guo, & Porter, 2011) and supported on quantitatives methods that allow to make no lineals interconected models, features of the networks and patterns that have been discovered across informatics systems (Capra, 1998) establish a new formulation of the irreversible changes within the (Prigogine, 1997).

According to he graph above, criminal organizations begin to adapt a technological innovation in time period 1, subsequently the Police react and act in the time period 2, for both time periods 3 and 4 the police reduce the risk forcing criminal organizations don’t to use this innovation. But from complexity of criminal systems of self-organization and self-adaptation between either time periods 4 and 5 generate a new use for technological innovation or to modify the way to use this, the Police is available in time period 5 to begin the cycle, but with the enhanced of knowledge and improving the complexity of the system.

This behavior patterns will be to carry for simulation across of informatics systems that permit to have comprehension of relations between the organizations, cost, impact, strategies and problems (Stefanovic, Stefanovic, & Radenkovic, 2009) that should consider the Police to anticipate and to avoid that criminal organizations adapt for your illegal activities the technological innovations, using a decision support system about technological decision architecture (Lebraty, 2006) to establish possible futures that are multiples realities (Mojica, 2011).

Analyzing the patterns adaptation across modeling and simulation together with adaptation likelihood of technological innovation, the Police may anticipate from first time period 1, the shape how criminal organizations going to use this innovation forcing to search new forms of use and new technologies, how it happen since time period 3 to 6 when they try to adapt and to use a new technologic, but the Police have already anticipated, avoiding the criminal sophistication.

The methodology will have a focus and operative quantitative to know of primary and secondary sources (observation, interview, data-mining and data analysis) growth trends and technological innovation main use in the making of illegal activities that affect the human security.    

          

This information is obtained by means of strategic intelligence technical; identify your patterns, using complex quantitative methods, achieving the modeling and simulation of the knowledge, study and work with no lineal complex systems to treat problems, phenomenon and complex behaviors with computational tools to find network of solutions (Maldonado & Gómez Cruz, 2010). 

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